▦FCF Projection — Historical + Forecast
●Value Breakdown
◈Scenario Analysis
▦Sensitivity Analysis (Price per Share)
| Growth ↓ / WACC → | 9.38% WACC | 10.38% WACC | 11.38% WACC | 12.38% WACC | 13.38% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | ₹534.93 -81.81% | ₹457.88 -84.43% | ₹399.43 -86.41% | ₹353.64 -87.97% | ₹316.82 -89.22% |
| 11.00% | ₹557.58 -81.03% | ₹477.00 -83.78% | ₹415.89 -85.85% | ₹368.01 -87.48% | ₹329.52 -88.79% |
| 12.00% | ₹581.02 -80.24% | ₹496.78 -83.10% | ₹432.91 | ₹382.87 -86.98% | ₹342.65 -88.35% |
| 13.00% | ₹605.28 -79.41% | ₹517.25 -82.41% | ₹450.51 -84.68% | ₹398.23 -86.45% | ₹356.23 -87.88% |
| 14.00% | ₹630.37 -78.56% | ₹538.42 -81.69% | ₹468.71 -84.06% | ₹414.12 -85.91% | ₹370.25 -87.41% |
What is a two-stage DCF?
A discounted cash flow (DCF) model values a company by projecting its future free cash flows (FCFs) and discounting them back to today using the company’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC). A two-stage model splits the forecast into a high-growth phase (typically 5 years) and a fade phase (another 5 years) before applying a terminal value at a perpetuity growth rate. The sum of the present-value FCFs plus the present-value terminal value gives enterprise value (EV). Dividing by shares outstanding gives the intrinsic value per share.
How to read the sensitivity table
The matrix above shows how the per-share intrinsic value changes when WACC (the discount rate) and growth rate are perturbed by ±2%. The central cell is your base case. The colour signals whether each combination produces an intrinsic value above (green) or below (red) the current market price. A robust thesis should produce a green cell across most of the matrix.
Why margin of safety matters
DCF outputs depend on inputs that nobody knows precisely — five years out, growth, margins and capex are educated guesses at best. The Monte Carlo tab shows the distribution of intrinsic values when those inputs are randomly perturbed. The P10-P90 band is a more honest range than the base estimate. Look for a stock where the market price is below the P25 of the distribution — that’s a real margin of safety.